Harper may remake and reshape Canada - but not in terms of ideology

The chattering classes and pundits have been fixated on the idea that Harper is shifting Canada ideologically to the right.  However, there are other more fundamental assumptions that he has already begun to reshape.  Assumptions that are at the very heart of Canada's fabric as a nation.

Ideological influences in many cases are short term.  The character of nations is the result of history and rarely changes with any one government.  The views of Canadians on issues are currently colored more by the tenuous economic situation than a hard ideological shift.  Even the most profligate spender will moderate their personal behavior when faced with a job at risk - but will return to his or her core character over time.  The same holds true for Canadians and politics: when faced with economic uncertainty, it should not be a surprise that Canadians currently are more likely to embrace cuts and restraint than in the past.

While Harper's ideological influence will likely be fleeting in terms of historical impact, at this juncture he can have a long term impact that redefines the nature of two fundamental relationships that have shaped Canada since Confederation:  our relationship the United States and the relationship between federal and provincial governments.

It should not be a surprise that a Prime Minister with life experiences in Ontario and Alberta should consider the United States as a natural economic partner.  At the start of the Harper mandate, it was clear that his view of Canada and the world were still colored by the belief that America was a key part of our prosperity and strategy on the world stage.  Fast forward to today and we see a Harper who is respectful of our historic friendship with the US but is looking towards Asia with growing interest in diversifying our market for exports and reducing our reliance on the US. Whether it be his views on opening Asian markets to Canadian energy through the Northern Gateway Pipeline or his work to get Canada inside the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), we are witnessing a deliberate attempt to reorient Canada's focus more toward the Pacific.  This is in stark contrast to Canada's traditional historic focus on the North Atlantic and our southern neighbor.

Looking domestically, the Harper’s interpretation of the federal role within confederation seems to be one where -- in a number of policy areas that profoundly touch the lives of Canadians -- the federal government is a minority shareholder.  It is interested in ensuring that its investment is well spent and produces results.  The federal approach to the latest Health Accord is a case in point.  Harper has carefully and strategically engaged - not leading the charge for healthcare transformation but setting clear financial boundaries for federal engagement.  In this paradigm the federal government is not a leader but more of a passive steward.  Past Conservative and Liberal federal governments have strived to engage in self defined nation-building initiatives such as universal healthcare or unemployment insurance even if they were areas led by the provinces.  However, this government appears committed to a vision of Canada which is more of a federation.

Whether these changes are good or bad is beyond the point - they represent structural departures from the past and set Canada on a new course.  Harper's most lasting legacy may not relate to ideology but the remaking and reshaping of Canada into a federation of provinces who look beyond the United States for their prosperity and future.

Nik Nanos is the President of Nanos Research, a research associate professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo and the official pollster for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.